Clear data for clean fuels

The main results are summarized below. Finally, the conclusions and recommendations derived from the results of the various VIEWLS studies are highlighted. Main results - Economic and environmental performance: 1) Taking the entire production and application chains into account, current biohels lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions than their fossil-based alternatives (petrol or diesel). 2) Greenhouse gas emissions from today's biohels are 30-50% lower than those of their fossil-based counterparts. 3) The review shows that hture biohels will reduce greenhouse gas emissions even further. The VIEWLS Reference values indicate that greenhouse gas emissions, taken over the entire production and application chains, are 50-90% lower than those of fossil hels. 4) Future biohels will largely be produced from cellulose-based raw materials, thus replacing plant oil, sugar and starch as raw materials. 5) The production costs for biohels are higher than those for traditional petrol and diesel. This applies to the current biohels and is also expected to apply to the hture biohels. 6) At current oil prices the production costs are 2-3 times higher for the current biohels and will be 2-4 times higher for future. 7) The costs of avoiding C02#square#eq. emissions will drop considerably, to acceptable levels, over the next few years. 8) The current biohels are characterised by higher costs per ton of avoided C02-equivalents. The review revealed that the costs are generally 300-700 euro per ton C02-eq. 9) These high costs are caused by higher production costs, but primarily by the relatively limited C02-eq. benefit. 10) In the long term (after 2010), reduction costs could fall to levels between 40 and 200 euro per ton C02-eq. This is mainly due to (i) improved production methods for the current biohels, with lower costs and better C02 reduction, and (ii) the arrival of biohels produced from cellulose-based raw materials, which are characterised by significantly higher C02-eq. reductions. Main results - Biomass production potential biofuel trade chains: 1) The new Member States on the eastern side of the European Union offer prospects for growing raw materials to produce biohels. 2) In an ago-intensive scenario (currently not yet applicable in the CEEC region), 35-44 million hectares of land could be available for biomass production in 2030, which could lead to a annual biomass potential of 6-12 EJ. 3) Using a scenario revolving around 'regionality' and maintaining agricultural production systems at the present level of productivity in CEEC, more land would be required for food and wood production, leading to a possible biomass reserve of between 2.5 and 6 EJ (NB: in the year 2000, the total energy consumption for the CEEC region amounted to 6 EJ). 4) Biomass can play an important role in increasing Europe's sustainability levels: the energy content of the biomass that could be produced in the CEEC is greater than the energy demand, and thus offers opportunities for exporting to Western Europe. 5) The ago-intensive scenario continues to have a lot of highnquality land available for biomass production, which leads to lower biomass production costs. Biomass from lignocellulosic crops can be produced for around 2 euro/GJ. Higher costs (up to 10 euro/GJ) are estimated for other raw materials and scenarios. 6) This analysis into production potential clearly shows that a trade flow in biomass could be set up from Eastern Europe to Western Europe. 7) The existing European transport network infrastructure (road, rail and water) is suitable for exporting biomass from Central and Eastern Europe. Where possible, biomass could be converted to biofuel in Central Europe, because transporting the biofuel would be less expensive than transporting the raw biomass and then converting it in Western Europe. The costs would then vary between 6.4 and EIGJHHV. Main results - Biofuel implementation scenarios: 1) The models predict that in the long term - certainly to 2020 - the current-generation biofuels could play an important role in the biofuel market, due to their favourable production costs. 2) The next generation of biofuels (primarily those using gasification of lignocellulose-based raw materials) is expected to gradually increase (up to 2010) and then strongly increase its market share (from 2010 onwards). 3) The price level for this new generation of biofuels is based on a barrel of crude oil costing around 60-100 US dollars per barrel. 4) The greenhouse gas reduction potential for the new generation of biofuels is higher (85-92%) than that for the current biofuels (39-46%). The models indicate that they could be produced for around 8 euro/GJ, which makes them comparable with the production costs for fossil fuels of 7 euro/GJ (at a crude-oil price of 40 US dollars). Conclusions and recommendations: The following conclusions and recommendations are derived from the results of the various VIEWLS studies. 1) The environmental performance (particularly the greenhouse gas reduction potential) of biofuels is positive and will increase in the years to come: through improvements that are specific to the fuel chain and optimising performance, and through the creation of new - generation biofuels. 2) The production costs of current biofuels are approaching the price level of fossil-based fuels, especially when based on biomass produced in the CEEC region, partially due to recent price increases for crude oil. 3) The production costs of new-generation biofuels are slightly higher because, as yet, there has been no optimisation of technological development and upscaling, as well as improved corresponding lignocellulosic biomass production optimisation. 4) The costs of greenhouse gas reduction are clearly more favourable for new-generation biofuels, which is caused by the higher greenhouse gas savings due to the use of lignocellulose-based biomass. 5) Central and Eastern Europe could become the 'biofuel store' of the EU. If suitable strategic decisions are taken for the agricultural sector, sufficient agricultural areas could become available for producing biomass, without endangering the production of food crops and wood for other applications. 6) The available infrastructure facilities are already present to accommodate the trade in biomass and, preferably, to allow biofuel trade between Western and Eastern Europe at an acceptable price. 7) There is still a risk of competition between biomass for electricity and heat production and biomass for the transport sector. Careful strategic alignment will be required (at both national and European levels) to ensure synergy of the development. 8) The elements for an efficient biofuel implementation strategy consist of further optimisation of current biofuel performance, long-term support for the development of thermo-chemical and enzymatic conversion routes for lignocellulosic biomass in the new generation of biofuels is required in order to achieve high greenhouse gas reduction levels and be economically attractive, strategic policy activities are required in order to make suitable agricultural areas in Central and Eastern Europe available for biomass production. 9) Choices need to be made at European level to define the priority focus for the future development of biofuels: i) focus on the lowest possible production costs for biofuels, ii) focus on the highest possible reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, or iii) focus on the highest possible energy efficiency for the land areas available. These decisions will need to be made in consultation with all relevant stakeholders, because each alternative leads to a different mix of biomass options to be developed