Uncertainty assessment in quantitative risk analysis
The result of any risk analysis is uncertain, sometimes very uncertain. Despite of this fact, there is still a limited tradition for describing uncertainties, mainly due to the lack of appropriate methods.
In this research project, a method has been developed that makes it possible to fulfil the requirements of the Danish Standard, Risk Analysis: Requirements and Terminology, DS/INF 85, as far as regards quantitative uncertainty descriptions. The method is based on four uncertainty classes: Uncertainty in knowledge, assumptions, models and input. Together, these four classes cover all sources of uncertainties. The method for treating the four classes is based on median values and uncertainty factors resulting in an interval, in which the wanted value will lay with large probability (level of confidence 95%). A similar method has been developed for f-N curves
Key figures
Category
Participants
| Partner | Subsidy | Auto financing |
|---|---|---|
| Ørsted A/S | ||
| Danmarks Tekniske Universitet (DTU) |
Contact
Parallelvej 15
DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark
Wiuff, Rasmus (Lic.tech.), 45972811, rw@cowi.dk
Øvr. Partnere: Dansk Olie og Naturgas A/S; Danmarks Tekniske Universitet. Institut for Matematisk Modellering
