Advanced solar resource assessment and forecasting

Advanced solar resource assessment and forecasting is necessary for optimal solar energy utilization. this work will be done with the collaborators in the IEA SHC Task 46 expert group, and will be based on a focused analysis of both historic and new detailed measurements, and the newest theoretical models for modelling solar resources.

The short-term resource variability caused by fractional 3-dimensional cloud fields affect the solar radiance, including both the angular distribution and electromagnetic spectrum of this. This will be investigated by applying high temporal resolution measurements of the solar radiance from ground based stations operated by the Technical University of Denmark, Department of Civil Engineering (DTU) in Lyngby and in Sisimut, Greenland.

DMI will develop rapid update cycle numerical weather forecasts that are optimized with respect to solar forecasting. The rapid update cycle model will typically provide forecasts from 2 to 24 hours ahead in time. The second type of forecast relevant in this project is the DMI HIRLAM ensemble model, which is an ensemble weather model with 25 members. The ensembæe can provide an estimate of the uncertainty of a given forecast.