Renewable energy in the transport sector using biofuels as energy carriers (REBECa)

In an integrated analysis the REBECa project examined how policy targets for renewable energy in road traffic (10% share in 2020) can be achieved through the use of biofuels, and what implications it may have for a number of energy, environmental and economic aspects. Scenarios with greater ambitions (25% share in 2030) were also analyzed.

A projection of the Danish development in road traffic in the short and medium term (2020 - 2030) and the resulting energy was used as a reference. For the scenarios the admixture profile of biofuels was determined, as well as the division between biodiesel (RME) and bioethanol. The agricultural crops selected were wheat and rape. Emissions to air from this admixture were modeled and distributed geographically, and effects on air quality estimated. The need for biomass (first-generation wheat and oilseed rape) was implemented in analyses of agriculture's ability to meet this need, and of the resulting changes in land use. An integrated analysis of emissions, energy consumption and economic resource utilization was also carried out, by coupling the results from well-to-wheel analysis and welfare economic analysis in the same analytical framework. A number of subprojects illuminated other aspects of the phase-in of biofuel.

The juxtaposition of welfare economic impacts, emission impacts and changes in energy consumption based on the same analytical model provides a broader basis for assessing the overall effects of the scenarios for the introduction of biofuels, as the three types of effects are not always pointing in the same direction. Thus, the analyzes showed a welfare-economic loss by replacing 1 kg of fossil fuel with 1 kg first-generation bioethanol or 1 kg RME, while a gain was obtained by second generation bioethanol. At the same time, reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions were highest for RME. The results showed also that there are large uncertainties associated with these analyzes, since they are strongly influenced by assumptions on oil price, wheat price, the use of straw and side products. Moreover, effects on land use outside Denmark (iLUC) were not included.